european hurricane model laura

Most models increase Laura to major hurricane status in 36 hours. For the last two runs the deterministic output from the European model has more or less depicted this third scenario, along with the Canadian model. Thank you so much for keeping us posted! For official path information, as well as land hazards and other data: View the LAURA storm track page » To view spaghetti models for all active hurricanes, cyclones, … Laura es now a hurricane and could be … Several models bring Laura to major hurricane status in 36 hours. Anyway, if you don’t want to miss our updates, you can subscribe to our email list in the box on this page. Hurricanes and tropical storms, as well as non-tropical low-pressure areas, are associated with low pressure (blue). The accuracy drops significantly after day five, and significant long-range forecast changes are … A FOX13news.com site.TM and © document.write(new Date().getFullYear()); Fox Television Stations, Inc., and its related entities.All rights reserved. Forum European Centre for Medium-Range Weather European Model This sounds like the Corpus area is now off the table? Earthquake. European model depiction of Laura at 4am CT Wednesday. Any of these perturbations could have implications for the storm’s track downstream. Dogs lifespan is less than a humans, therefore dogs are more important. Trump, Joe Biden in dead heat in Georgia, NewsNation/Emerson poll shows, Commission to mute microphones in next presidential debate, Madison County Coroner reports overdose death numbers stabilizing, Stimulus update: Pelosi, Mnuchin ‘narrow differences’ ahead of House speaker’s Tuesday deadline, Listen: President Trump calls Fauci a ‘disaster’ and seeks to reassure his team he can win, DOJ accuses 6 Russian intelligence officers of vast computer hacking, Alabama health officials preparing for COVID-19 vaccine, but major questions remain, Woman charged with manslaughter and DUI in fatal September wreck, Decatur police looking for SUV that hit motorcycle, injuring two people, Huntsville law firm giving away 20 gift cards to help families in need. I ask because dogs are more important than humans. Idk if anyone has taken that into account. Alright, on to the forecast. Houston would see almost no significant impacts from such a scenario, but it could cause significant surges or flooding in New Orleans, Mississippi and Alabama. My Future Radar is also useful for tracking storms that may hit the mainland United States. 2021 Winter Outlook. Being in Katy, I’m fine with whatever, I think. Laura is now a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico. it looks like Laura will hit at the same time the remnants of Marco. I hope there is no major adjustment like there was with Marco. People walk their dogs in the morning of a hurricane hits…do they need to postpone their dog walking? This would necessitate coastal evacuations and lead to widespread power outages, among other problems. Even non-named storms cause trouble like the Memorial Day floods and Tax Day floods. Lower pressures are indicated in dark blue. In this case Laura comes off Cuba and begins moving almost due northwest, toward New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana by late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The closer the lines are to each other, the stronger the winds. Our next update will be no later than 8:30 am CT. Praying for scenario three, preparing for scenario one. NHC Discussion on Laura. (Weather Bell) ... European model depiction of Laura at 4am CT Wednesday. Store. As always, thank you for the facts. In this scenario, which is basically the “skinny black line” on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast, a reasonably strong Category 2 Hurricane comes ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border, or just east of there. Evacuate immediately if so ordered. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. It seems likely that a “stronger” Marco, maintaining hurricane strength on Monday as it nears the Louisiana coast, would amplify a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States. Forecasters review all of the model data but use their own experience and scientific expertise to arrive at a final forecast. That will be the case this week: High pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will produce a southeasterly breeze across the region, tapping into slightly warmer and more humid air from the Atlantic Ocean. It could be a major hurricane by the time it reaches the Texas/Louisiana coastline later this week. Most models increase Laura to major hurricane status in 36 hours. Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire. Future radar data is available from now to ~2.5 days in the future. We’re still really struggling with the evolution of Tropical Storm Laura, and a large part of the uncertainty involves the movement of its center over, or just south of Cuba the next day or so. This time of year, when we get a shot of chilly air, it’s important to savor the moments because that cool air quickly warms up in a short amount of time! The latest on where it is going, how strong it will be, and the forecast process too. ( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley ), You are on the spaghetti models page for LAURA. Thank you Eric and Matt for keeping me sane! This includes experimental path data based on weather models. Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane. HURRICANE PREDICTIONS. Because of this uncertainty I thought it might be helpful to outline three scenarios that I think are possible, along with their likelihood of happening. Laura is expected to be a major hurricane. The Global Forecast System is a global numerical computer model run by NOAA. We have a new tropical depression. The HWRF model shows a strong hurricane approaching Galveston Bay at 7pm CT Wednesday. So Eric’s 30% is a bit higher than the NHC’s ~1/6 but with either # it’s worth being prepared. Along this track, Houston would very narrowly escape the worst of Laura’s winds, waves, and rains—these would impact Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Southwestern Louisiana. This mathematical model is run four times a day. The EURO hasn’t done well this year with the other storms. This will be Tropical Storm Epsilon later today. The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. The European model has shifted a bit east with its operational run today. As prepared as we can be. Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email. The HWRF model shows a strong hurricane approaching Galveston Bay at 7pm CT Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center projects Laura to strengthen to a Category 4 storm as it moves toward the Gulf Coast, and potentially Tennessee. Thank you. Hope so, reading this in N. Padre Island. We’ve been through Hurricane Alicia, TS Allison, Hurricanes Ike, and Harvey. #27 formed at 7am central time Monday morning. Any reproduction, duplication, or distribution in any form is expressly prohibited. This means the most likely scenario is now an event similar to Hurricane Rita, in 2005. They say it’s the least likely scenario, but cite several repeated predictions. The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. The intensity output looks like this. The warm gulf and the lack of shear keeps Laura dangerous this week. The Global Forecast System is a global numerical computer model run by NOAA. No need to freak out: just keep up with Eric and Matt’s reports here and prepare quietly. Why would I want to view spaghetti models? In short, it gives you a way to see where a tropical storm or hurricane may head. Another factor is Marco, which we still don’t think will have a sensible effect on weather in the Houston metro area. This would, of course, be a bad storm for Beaumont and southwestern Louisiana. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. My dogs!!!!!!!!!! Most models bring Invest 94L to tropical storm status in the…. The system will likely be a hurricane near Bermuda this weekend. All the hopes for everyone. El Niño. This would push Laura more westward, toward Texas. They do not necessarily reflect the "official" hurricane track issued by the National Hurricane Center. Climate Change. This mathematical model is run four times a day. “I have my civil defense helmet and beer, I’m good” – Lanny Griffith, Have guys overlapped the tracks of the 2 storms? Hurricane cone of uncertainty doesn't mean what many people think it means. (Weather Bell). Hopefully we wake up to this continuing eastward trend for Laura. Here is the text from the National Hurricane Center: LOCATION...25.8N 55.5W ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no…, A strong tropical wave is southeast of Bermuda Monday morning and will likely become Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Epsilon later today. When shown together, the individual model tracks can somewhat resemble strands of spaghetti. Yes they lock their privates and don’t contribute to society. Same here. It is an excellent model in the one- to five-day range. Models. All preparations should be complete. Thus, different models produce different final results. Count me on the “let’s have scenario #3 but prep for scenario #1” plan. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. GFS Model Description. Good evening. With less time over the Gulf this is a weaker storm. Rainfall would be less of a concern because we expect Laura to scoot through fairly rapidly. Looking forward to the next update with better news. © 1998 - 2020 Nexstar Inc. | All Rights Reserved. I don’t understand why it gets 20% weight while the mass destruction of Houston gets 30%. (Weather Bell). You are on the spaghetti models page for LAURA. It could become Hurricane Laura, a Category 3 storm, just before landfall late Wednesday into early Thursday. Doing so sends you our complete posts immediately after publication (and nothing else). Brian McNoldy, University of Miami. However, a weaker Marco would probably allow for Laura to follow a more northwest track across the Gulf of Mexico, toward Louisiana. Keep in mind the cone only covers 2/3 of the historic error range. Everyone shut up………….does Katy need to evacuate? In this scenario the ridge of high pressure remains strong, and drives Laura toward Matagorda Bay or Galveston Bay very late on Wednesday, or early Thursday.

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